ECONOMY OVERVIEW
Turkmenistan is a largely desert country with intensive agriculture in irrigated oases and large gas and oil resources. One-half of its irrigated land is planted in cotton; formerly it was the world's 10th-largest producer. Poor harvests in recent years have led to an almost 50% decline in cotton exports. With an authoritarian ex-Communist regime in power and a tribally based social structure, Turkmenistan has taken a cautious approach to economic reform, hoping to use gas and cotton sales to sustain its inefficient economy. Privatization goals remain limited. From 1998-2005, Turkmenistan suffered from the continued lack of adequate export routes for natural gas and from obligations on extensive short-term external debt. At the same time, however, total exports rose by an average of 15% per year from 2003-06, largely because of higher international oil and gas prices. In 2006, Ashgabat raised its natural gas export prices to its main customer, Russia, from $66 per thousand cubic meters (tcm) to $100 per tcm. Overall prospects in the near future are discouraging because of widespread internal poverty, a poor educational system, government misuse of oil and gas revenues, and Ashgabat's unwillingness to adopt market-oriented reforms. Turkmenistan's economic statistics are state secrets, and GDP and other figures are subject to wide margins of error. In particular, the rate of GDP growth is uncertain. President BERDIMUHAMEDOV's election platform included plans to build a gas line to China, to complete the AmuDarya railroad bridge in Lebap province, and to create special border trade zones in southern Balkan province - a hint that the new post-NIYAZOV government will work to create a friendlier foreign investment environment.